Department of Actuarial Mathematics & Statistics
Professor Emeritus Angus Macdonald BSc PhD FFA FRSE
Brief CV here.
New Book on Mortality Modelling!
Published in May 2018, Modelling Mortality with Actuarial Applications
by Angus S Macdonald, Stephen J Richards and Iain D Currie. Issued in the
Cambridge University Press International Series on Actuarial Science,
this brand-new book shows actuaries how to use survival models in their work,
covering the subject in depth, from its modern theoretical basis all the
way to useable R code. ISBN 978-1-107-04541-5.
The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences
The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical
Sciences, part of the Edinburgh
Research Partnership, pools all the research and postgraduate
activities in the three mathematical sciences departments at Heriot-Watt University and the University of Edinburgh.
The Institute aims to be an internationally pre-eminent centre for
research and for postgraduate training in the mathematical sciences,
and to offer an environment that is able to attract and foster the
very best mathematical talent from around the world.
The Genetics and Insurance Research Centre
Until I retired in 2022 I was director of the
Genetics and Insurance Research Centre (GIRC) established
in the Department
of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics (part of the School of Mathematical and Computer
Sciences at Heriot-Watt University)
in 1999. This was an independent research unit,
whose task is to develop mathematical models of the impact of human
genetics on policyholders, insurers and care providers.
Present Research Interests
The implications for insurance of human genetics.
Stochastic modelling applied to life office solvency.
Mortality/morbidity models.
Publications
- Ljeskovac, M., Dickson, D.C.M., Kilpatrick, S., Macdonald, A.S.,
Miller, K.A. & Paterson, I.M. (1991). A model office investigation
of the potential impact of AIDS on non-linked life assurance business
(with discussion). Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 42,
187-276.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1991) On Investment Strategies Using the Wilkie
Model. Transactions of the 2nd AFIR International Colloquium, Brighton
1991, 3:413-427.
- Paul, D.R.L., Eastwood, A.M., Hare, D.J.P, Macdonald, A.S.,
Muirhead, J.R., Mulligan, J.F., Pike, D.M. & Smith, E.F. (1993).
Restructuring mutuals - principles and practice (with discussion).
Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 43, 167-277 and 353-375.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1993) What is the Value of a Valuation?
Transactions of the 3rd AFIR International Colloquium, Rome 1993, 2:725-743.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1994) Appraising Life Office Valuations.
Transactions of the 4th AFIR International Colloquium, Orlando 1994,
3:1163-1183.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1994) A Note on Life Office Models.
Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries 44:64-72.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1995) A Stochastic Evaluation of Solvency
Valuations for Life Offices. Ph.D. Thesis, Heriot-Watt University.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1996) An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models
for Decrement and Transition Data. I: Multiple State, Binomial and Poisson
Models. British Actuarial Journal, 2, 129-155.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1996) An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models
for Decrement and Transition Data. II: Competing Risks, Non-Parametric and
Regression Models. British Actuarial Journal, 2, 429-448.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1996) An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models
for Decrement and Transition Data. III: Counting Process Models.
British Actuarial Journal, 2, 703-726.
- Macdonald, A.S. (editor) (1997) The Second Actuarial Study of
Mortality in Europe. Groupe Consultatif des Associations d'Actuaires
des Payes des Communautes Europeennes, Oxford (ISBN 0-9510763-4-5).
- Macdonald, A.S. (1997) The United Kingdom. Chapter 18
of The Second Actuarial Study of Mortality in Europe. Groupe
Consultatif des Associations d'Actuaires des Payes des Communautes
Europeennes, Oxford.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1997) How will improved forecasts of individual
lifetimes affect underwriting? Philosophical Transactions of the
Royal Society B, 352, 1067-1075 and (with discussion) British Actuarial
Journal, 3, 1009-1025.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1997) Current actuarial modelling practice
and related issues and questions. North American Actuarial Journal,
1:3, 24-35.
- Eastwood, A.M., Ledlie, M.C., Macdonald, A.S. & Pike, D.M. (1997)
With-profits maturity payouts, asset shares and smoothing (with
discussion). Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 44, 497-575.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1997) The hypotheses underlying the pricing
of options: a note on a paper by Bartels. Proceedings of the 7th
AFIR International Colloquium, Cairns, 1997, 2, 617-630.
- Macdonald, A.S., Cairns, A.J.G., Gwilt, P.A. & Miller, K.A. (1998).
An international comparison of recent trends in population mortality.
British Actuarial Journal, 4, 3-141.
- Lockyer, J., Brett, P.G., Hannington, S.A., Lockyer, J.A.N.,
Macdonald, A.S. & Woods, J.J. (1998). Genetic science and its
implications for life insurance. Transactions of the 26th
International Congress of Actuaries, Birmingham, 1998, 3, 101-129.
- Macdonald, A.S. (1999) Modeling
the impact of genetics on insurance. North American Actuarial
Journal, 3:1, 83-101.
- Berketi, A. & Macdonald, A.S. (1999). The effect of the nature
of the liabilities on the solvency and maturity payouts of a UK life
office fund: a stochastic evaluation. Insurance: Mathematics &
Economics, 24, 117-138.
- Warren, V., Brett, P.,
Macdonald, A.S., Plumb, R.H. & Read, A.P. (1999). Genetic
tests and future need for long-term care in the UK: Report
of a Work Group of the Continuing Care Conference Genetic Tests and
Long-term Care Study Group. Continuing Care Conference, London.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2000). Human Genetics and Insurance Issues.
In Bio-ethics for the new millenium, ed, I. Torrance. St Andrew
Press.
- Macdonald, A.S. & Pritchard, D.J. (2000). A mathematical model of
Alzheimer's disease and the ApoE gene. ASTIN Bulletin, 30, 69-110.
- Macdonald, A.S. & Pritchard, D.J. (2001). Genetics, Alzheimer's
disease and long-term care insurance. North American
Actuarial Journal, 5:2, 54-78.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2001). Genetic information and insurance. Genetics Law Monitor,
2:1, 1-5.
- Gui, E.H. & Macdonald, A.S. (2002). A
Nelson-Aalen Estimate of the Incidence Rates of Early-Onset
Alzheimer's Disease Associated With the Presenilin-1 Gene.
ASTIN Bulletin, 32, 1-42.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2002). Genetics and Health Costs: Some Actuarial Models. Law, Probability
and Risk, 1, 97-118.
- Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2003a). The
genetics of breast and ovarian cancer I: A model of family history.
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 1-27.
- Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2003b). The
genetics of breast and ovarian cancer II: A model of critical illness
insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 28-50.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Genetics and Insurance: What Have We Learned
So Far? Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 324-348.
- Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Adult
Polycystic Kidney Disease and Critical Illness Insurance.
North American Actuarial Journal, 7:2, 93-115.
- Daykin, C.D., Akers, D.A., Macdonald, A.S., McGleenan, T., Paul, D. & Turvey, P.J. (2003). Genetics and Insurance -
Some Social Policy Issues (with discussions). British Actuarial Journal, 9, 787-874.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2003).
Moratoria on the use of genetic tests and family history for
mortgage-related life insurance. British
Actuarial Journal, 9, 217-237.
- Macdonald, A.S. & Yang, S.Y. (2003). Highly
Penetrant Genetic Disorders: An Atlas for Critical Illness
Insurance. British Actuarial Journal, 9, 875-901. Additional
information (Occasional Actuarial Research Document No. 42, deposited
in the libraries of the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries).
- Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Huntington's Disease,
Critical Illness Insurance and Life Insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2004, 279-313.
- Willets, R.C., Gallop, A.P., Leandro, P.A., Lu, J.L.C.,
Macdonald, A.S., Miller, K.A., Richards, S.J., Robjohns, N., Ryan, J.P
& Waters, H.R. (2004). Longevity in the 21st Century.
British Actuarial Journal, 10, 685-832.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Genetics and insurance.
In Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science (eds. J. Teugels & B. Sundt). John Wiley, Chichester.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Life insurance.
In Encyclopaedia of Actuarial Science (eds. J. Teugels & B. Sundt). John Wiley, Chichester.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Genetics and insurance
management. In The Swedish Society of Actuaries: One Hundred Years (ed. A. Sandstrom). Svenska Aktuarieforeningen, Stockholm.
- Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2005). A
model for coronary heart disease and stroke, with applications to critical
illness insurance underwriting I: The model. North
American Actuarial Journal, 9:1, 41-56.
- Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2005). A
model for coronary heart disease and stroke, with applications to critical
illness insurance underwriting II: Applications. North
American Actuarial Journal, 9:1, 13-40.
- Macdonald, A.S., Straughn, J.S. & Sutton, M. (2006). Healthy
life expectancy measurement in Scotland. British Actuarial Journal, 12, 327-394.
- Macdonald, A.S., Pritchard, D.J. & Tapadar, P. (2006). The impact of multifactorial genetic disorders on critical illness insurance: A simulation study based on UK Biobank. ASTIN Bulletin, 36, 311-346.
- Gui, E.H., Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2006). The
genetics of breast and ovarian cancer III: A new model of family history with applications.
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2006, 338-367.
- Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2006). Application of a polygenic model of breast and ovarian cancer to critical illness insurance. Annals of Actuarial Science, 1, 319-343. Erratum. Annals of Actuarial Science, 2, 413-419.
- Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2007). Adult
polycystic kidney disease and insurance: A case study in genetic
heterogeneity. North American Actuarial Journal, 11:1, 90-118.
- Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Yu, F. (2007). A dynamic family history
model of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer and
critical illness insurance. Annals of Actuarial Science, 2, 289-325.
- Espinosa, C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2007). A correction for ascertainment
bias in estimating rates of onset of highly penetrant genetic disorders. ASTIN Bulletin, 37, 429-452.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2007). Insurance. In Handbook of Statistical Genetics (third edition), eds.
Balding, D.J., Bishop, M. & Cannings, C.. John Wiley, Chichester.
- Mitchell, R.J., Ferguson, R.K., Macdonald, A.S., Dunlop, M.G., Campbell, H. & Porteous, M.E. (2008).
Cascade genetic testing for mismatch repair gene mutations, Familial Cancer, 7, 293-301.
- Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S. & Wekwete, C.T. (2008). Premium rates based on
genetic studies: How reliable are they? Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42, 319-331.
- Chatterjee, T., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). A model for ischaemic heart disease
and stroke I: The model. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3, 45-81.
- Chatterjee, T., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). A model for ischaemic heart disease
and stroke II: Modelling obesity. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3, 83-103.
- Chatterjee, T., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). A model for ischaemic heart disease
and stroke III: Applications. Annals of Actuarial Science, 105-119.
- Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). Sampling distributions of critical
illness insurance premium rates: Breast and ovarian cancer. ASTIN Bulletin, 38, 527-542.
- Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2009). Modelling adverse selection in the presence of a common genetic
disorder: The breast cancer polygene, ASTIN Bulletin, 39, 373-402.
- Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2010). Pensions and genetics: Can longevity genes be reliable risk factors for annuity pricing?, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2010, 1-14.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2010). Survival analysis on pedigrees:
A marked point process model, ASTIN Bulletin, 40, 35-64.
- Macdonald, A.S. & Tapadar, P. (2010). Multifactorial genetic disorders and adverse selection: Epidemiology meets economics, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(1), 155-182.
- Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2011). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer IV: A model of breast cancer progression, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2011, 239-266.
- Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Yu, F. (2011). The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer V: Application to income protection insurance, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2011, 267-291.
- Macdonald, A.S. & Yu, F. (2011). The impact of genetic
information on the insurance industry: Conclusions from the `bottom-up' modelling
programme, ASTIN Bulletin, 41, 343-376.
- Joly, Y., Burton, H., Knoppers, B.M., Feze, I.N., Dent, T., Pashayan, N.,
Chowdhury, S., Foulkes, W., Hall, A., Hamet, P., Kirwan, N., Macdonald, A., Simard, J.
& Van Hoyweghen, I. (2014). Life insurance: Genomic stratification and risk classification.
European Journal of Human Genetics, 22(5), 575-579..
- Adams, C.J., Donnelly, C.A. & Macdonald, A.S. (2015). The impact of known breast cancer polygenes on critical illness insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2015, 141-171.
- Adams, C.J., Donnelly, C.A. & Macdonald, A.S. (2015). Adverse selection in a start-up long-term care insurance market (with discussion). , British Actuarial Journal, 20, 298-365.
- Hao, M., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. & Thomas, R.G. (2016). Insurance loss coverage under restricted risk classification: The case of iso-elastic demand. ASTIN Bulletin, 46, 265-291.
- Hao, M., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. & Thomas, R.G. (2018). Insurance loss coverage and demand elasticities. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 79, 15-25.
- Hao, M., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. & Thomas, R.G. (2019). Insurance loss coverage and social welfare. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019, 113-128.
- Ungolo, F., Christiansen, M., Kleinow, T. & Macdonald, A.S. (2019). Survival analysis of pension scheme mortality when data are missing. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019, 523-547.
- Ungolo, F., Kleinow, T. & Macdonald, A.S. (2020). A hierarchical model for the joint mortality analysis of pension scheme data with missing covariates. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 91, 68-84.
- Hacariz, O., Kleinow, T., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. & Thomas, R.G. (2020). Will genetic test results be monetized in life insurance? Risk Management and Insurance Review, 23, 379-399.
- Hacariz, O., Kleinow, T. & Macdonald, A.S. (2021). Genetics, insurance and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2021, 54-81.
- Ungolo, F., Kleinow, T. & Macdonald, A.S. (2021). Parametric bootstrap estimation of standard errors in survival models when covariates are missing. in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, eds. Corazza, M., Gilli, M., Perna, C., Pizzi, C. & Sibillo, M. Springer.
- Chatterjee, I., Macdonald, A.S., Tapadar, P. \& Thomas, R.G. (2021). When is utilitarian welfare higher under insurance risk pooling? Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 101, 289-301.
- Golinghurst, D., De Paor, A., Joly, Y., Macdonald, A.S., Otlowski, M., Peter, R. & Prince, A.E.R. (2021). Anti-selection and genetic testing: an interdisciplinary perspective. Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics, 50, 139-154.
- Hacariz, O., Kleinow, T. & Macdonald, A.S. (2022). An actuarial model of arryrthmogenic right ventricular cardiomyomathy and life insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2022, 94-114.
- Jose, A., Macdonald, A.S., Tzougas, G. & Streftaris, G. (2022). A combined neural network approach for the prediction of admission rates related to respiratory diseases. Risks, 11, 217.
- Jose, A., Macdonald, A.S., Tzougas, G. & Streftaris, G. (2024). Interpretable zero-inflated neural network models for predicting admission counts. To appear in Annals of Actuarial Science.
- Macdonald, A.S. (2024). Genetic testing and actuarial science. Annals of Actuarial Science, 18, 1-4.
- Arik, A. Cairns, A.J.G., Dodd, E., Macdonald, A.S., A. Shao \& Streftaris, G. (2024). Cancer insurance pricing under different scenarios associated with treatment and diagnosis. To appear in Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.
The Story of the Tossers
The actuarial profession in the U.K. has invented ``The Actuarial
Philosophy'' and ``The Actuarial Scientific Method''. The
Story of the Tossers
tells of another profession which had a similar idea.
Angus Macdonald / Heriot-Watt University / A.S.Macdonald@hw.ac.uk