FACES OF MATHEMATICS

Jonathan Tawn is a statistician whose research in environmental modelling studies the prediction of extreme events. He works closely with environmental scientists and engineers to ensure that frontline statistical research is available to decision-makers. The practical impact of his work is founded on his theoretical advances in the understanding of multivariate extreme statistics, and he combines mathematical power and innovation with leadership in the real-world implementation of these ideas.

"The modelling side of statistics involves a sort of detective common sense, building in everything that you hear from people into your model. It really isn't a straight area of mathematics: there are no axiomatic rules to help you do that. I enjoy the challenge of mixing the maths, where you've got the axiomatic rules, and this more subjective, scientific, strategy-based insight coming into the problem, and picking where that should come in.

"I'm very much influenced by the types of problems that still come up in extreme value areas... There's so much uncertainty about what is going on, and there's so much still to be got over to the practitioners. I envisage working more and more closely with the practitioners, trying to ensure that the huge methodology that exists gets carried over better."