The Genetics and Insurance Research Centre

Publications

Publication Policy

All the research work of the Genetics and Insurance Research Centre (GIRC) will be in the public domain. Research reports will be placed on this website and submitted to refereed journals for publication. Once accepted for publication or published the link will be moved to the `Published/Accepted Papers' section below. Note that many actuarial journals have refereeing and publishing delays that are unusual by normal standards.

Published/accepted papers

• Macdonald, A.S. (1997). How will improved forecasts of individual lifetimes affect underwriting? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 352, 1067-1075 and (with discussion) British Actuarial Journal, 3, 1009-1025.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (1999). Modeling the impact of genetics on insurance. North American Actuarial Journal, 3:1, 83-101.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & Pritchard, D.J. (2000). A mathematical model of Alzheimer's disease and the ApoE gene. ASTIN Bulletin, 30, 69-110.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2000). Human Genetics and Insurance Issues. In Bio-ethics for the New Millenium, ed. Torrance, I.. St. Andrew Press.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & Pritchard, D.J. (2001). Genetics, Alzheimer's Disease and Long-Term Care Insurance.. North American Actuarial Journal, 5:2, 54-78.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2001). Genetic information and insurance. Genetics Law Monitor, 2:1, 1-5.
  
• Gui, E.H. & Macdonald, A.S. (2002). A Nelson-Aalen Estimate of of the Incidence Rates of Early-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Associated With the Presenilin-1 Gene. ASTIN Bulletin, 32, 1-42. Additional information.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2002). Genetics and Health Costs: Some Actuarial Models. Law, Probability and Risk, 1, 97-118.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Genetics and Insurance: What Have We Learned So Far? Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 324-348.
  
• Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Adult Polycystic Kidney Disease and Critical Illness Insurance. North American Actuarial Journal, 7:2, 93-115.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2003). Moratoria on the Use of Genetic Tests and Family History for Mortgage-Related Life Insurance. British Actuarial Journal, 9, 217-237.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & Yang, S.Y. (2003). Highly Penetrant Genetic Disorders: An Atlas for Critical Illness Insurance. British Actuarial Journal, 9, 875-901. Additional information (Occasional Actuarial Research Document No. 42, deposited in the libraries of the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries).
  
• Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Huntington's Disease, Critical Illness Insurance and Life Insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2004, 279-311.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2004). Genetics and Insurance Management, The Swedish Society of Actuaries: One Hundred Years, (ed. A. Sandstrom), Svenska Aktuarieforeningen, Stockholm.
  
• Macdonald, A.S., Pritchard, D.J. & Tapadar, P. (2006). The Impact of Multifactorial Genetic Disorders on Critical Illness Insurance: A Simulation Study Based on UK Biobank. ASTIN Bulletin, 36, 311-346.
  
• Gui, E.H., Lu, B., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2006). The Genetics and Breast and Ovarian Cancer III: A New Model of Family History With Insurance Applications. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2006, 338-367.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2006). Application of a polygenic model of breast and ovarian cancer to critical illness insurance. Annals of Actuarial Science, 1, 319-342. Erratum. Annals of Actuarial Science, 2, 413-419.
  
• Gutierrez, M.C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2007). Adult polycystic kidney disease and insurance: A case study in genetic heterogeneity. North American Actuarial Journal, 11:1, 90-118.
  
• Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Yu, F. (2007). A dynamic family history model of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer and critical illness insurance,. Annals of Actuarial Science, 2, 289-325.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2007). Insurance. In Handbook of Statistical Genetics (third edition), eds. Balding, D.J., Bishop, M. & Cannings, C.. John Wiley, Chichester.
  
• Espinosa, C. & Macdonald, A.S. (2007). A correction for ascertainment bias in estimating rates of onset of highly penetrant genetic disorders, ASTIN Bulletin, 37, 429-542.
  
• Mitchell, R.J., Ferguson, R.K., Macdonald, A.S., Dunlop, M.G., Campbell, H. & Porteous, M.E. (2008). Cascade genetic testing for mismatch repair gene mutations, Familial Cancer, 7, 293-301.
  
• Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S. & Wekwete, C.T. (2008). Premium rates based on genetic studies: How reliable are they? Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42, 319-331.
  
• Lu, L., Macdonald, A.S. & Waters, H.R. (2008). Sampling distributions of critical illness insurance premium rates: Breast and ovarian cancer, ASTIN Bulletin, 38, 527-542.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & Tapadar, P. (2008). Multifactorial genetic disorders and adverse selection: Epidemiology meets economics, to appear in Journal of Risk and Insurance.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2009). Pensions and genetics: Can longevity genes be reliable risk factors for annuity pricing?, to appear in Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. & McIvor, K.R. (2009). Modelling adverse selection in the presence of a common genetic disorder: The breast cancer polygene, ASTIN Bulletin, 39, 373-402.
  
• Macdonald, A.S. (2010). Survival analysis on pedigrees: A marked point process model, to appear in ASTIN Bulletin.
  

Research reports (currently submitted and undergoing refereeing) (pdf files):

• No 08/4: `The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer IV: A Model of Breast Cancer Progression', by Baopeng Lu, Angus Macdonald and Howard Waters.
  
• No 08/5: `The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer V: Application to Income Protection Insurance', by Baopeng Lu, Angus Macdonald and Howard Waters.
  

Older research reports and working papers (pdf files):

• No 02/2: `Early-Onset Alzheimer's Disease, Critical Illness Insurance and Life Insurance', by Eng Hock Gui and Angus Macdonald.
  
• No 02/3: `Huntington's Disease and Insurance I: A Model of Huntington's Disease', by Cristina Gutierrez and Angus Macdonald.
  
• No 02/4: `Huntington's Disease and Insurance II: Critical Illness Insurance and Life Insurance', by Cristina Gutierrez and Angus Macdonald.
  
• No 03/2: `Should Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia Be An Insurance Problem Or Not?', by Eng Hock Gui and Angus Macdonald.
  
• No 03/3: `The Incidence Rates of Early-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Associated With the Presenilin-2 and Amyloid Precursor Protein Genes', by Eng Hock Gui and Angus Macdonald.
  
• No 08/1: `How Will Trastuzumab Affect Life Insurance?', by Angus Macdonald and Edward Roche.
  

Ph.D. theses

• Pritchard, D.J. (2002). The Genetics of Alzheimer's Disease, Modelling Disability and Adverse Selection in the Long-Term Care Insurance Market. (Large pdf file, 3Mb.)
  
• Wekwete, C.T. (2002). Genetics and Critical Illness Insurance Underwriting: Models for Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer and for Coronary Heart Disease. (Large pdf file, 1.5Mb.)
  
• Gui, E.H. (2003). Modelling the Impact of Genetic Testing on Insurance - Early-Onset Alzheimer's Disease and Other Single-Gene Disorders. (Large pdf file, 1.1Mb.)
  
• Espinosa, C. (2006). Ascertainment Bias in Estimating Rates of Onset of Early-Onset Alzheimer's Disease: A Critical Illness and Life Insurance Application. (Large pdf file, 2.7Mb.)
  
• Lu, L. (2006). Some Actuarial and Statistical Investigations into Topics on Genetics and Insurance. (Large pdf file, 1.8Mb.)
  
• Tapadar, P. (2007). The Impact of Multifactorial Genetic Disorders on Long-Term Insurance. (Large pdf file, 0.9Mb.)
  
• Lu, B. (2007). Some New Actuarial Models of the Insurance Implications of Genetic Testing for Breast and Ovarian Cancer. (Large pdf file, 1.3Mb.)
  
• McIvor, K. R. (2008). The Breast Cancer Polygene and Longevity Genes: The Implications for Insurance. (Large pdf file, 2.2Mb.)
• MacCalman, L. (2009). Effects of Genetic Testing on Insurance: Pedigree Analysis and Ascertainment Adjustment. (Large pdf file, 1.5Mb.)
• Yu, F. (2010). The Financial Impact of Genetic Information on the Insurance Industry. (Large pdf file, 2.1Mb.)

• Lockyer, J., Brett, P.G., Hannington, S.A., Lockyer, J.A.N., Macdonald, A.S. & Woods, J.J. (1998). Genetic Science and its Implications for Life Insurance.. Transactions of the 26th International Congress of Actuaries, Birmingham, 3, 101-129.
  
• Warren, V., Brett, P., Brayne, C., Macdonald, A.S., Plumb, R.H. & Read, A.P. (1999). Genetic tests and future need for long-term care in the UK: Report of a Work Group of the Continuing Care Conference Genetic Tests and Long-term Care Study Group. Continuing Care Conference, London.
  
• Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2003). The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer I: A Model of Family History. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 1-27.
  
• Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2003). The Genetics of Breast and Ovarian Cancer II: A Model of Critical Illness Insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2003, 28-50.
  
• Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2005). A Model for Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke, With Applications to Critical Illness Insurance Underwriting I: The Model. North American Actuarial Journal, 9:1, 13-40.
  
• Macdonald, A.S., Waters, H.R. & Wekwete, C.T. (2005). A Model for Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke, With Applications to Critical Illness Insurance Underwriting II: Applications. North American Actuarial Journal, 9:1, 41-56.
  
• Daykin, C.D., Akers, D.A., Macdonald, A.S., McGleenan, T., Paul, D. & Turvey, P.J. (2003). Genetics and Insurance - Some Social Policy Issues (with discussions). British Actuarial Journal, 9, 787-874.

Last update 9 February 2010